Why the predicted hurricane surge has slowed — for now
Every year, experts closely monitor the Atlantic hurricane season, predicting the number of storms that have the potential to cause major damage. In 2024, meteorologists expected an extremely active season, predicting up to two dozen named storms. But halfway through we saw only five. What caused this unexpected pause, and should we be preparing for a surge in storms?
Forecast versus reality
Experts, including those from NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration) and Colorado State University's Hurricane Research Group, predicted a very active hurricane season, predicting up to 24 named storms. By mid-September, hurricane watchers expect to track several simultaneous storms. However, the Atlantic remains surprisingly calm at the moment, with the last major activity being Hurricane Ernesto in mid-August.
For more weather experts, visit NOAA's Hurricane Center.
While the break in the storm surprised many, this lull is not unprecedented. Similar hiatuses occurred in the 1960s and most recently in 2020, when a brief hiatus was followed by a sudden surge in hurricane activity later in the season.
What is behind the slowdown?
Several key factors contribute to this unexpected hiatus in activity:
Shifting African storm tracks: Typically, storm systems originating in Africa become hurricanes over the warm Atlantic. This year, however, those systems have moved further north, where cooler waters prevent hurricanes from forming.
Conditions in the upper atmosphere: Unusually warm air in the upper atmosphere also played a role. This stable air prevents the formation of thunderstorms that are necessary for hurricanes to develop. As we approach fall, this atmospheric warmth may cool, potentially leading to increased storm activity.
La Niña Impact: The projected onset of La Niña weather in the Pacific is expected to contribute to a late season storm surge. Historically, La Niña conditions reduce wind shear, creating an environment conducive to hurricane development.
Will hurricane season resume?
Despite the current lull, experts warn that the worst may be yet to come. A record 13 named storms formed after September 10 in the 2020 season. The potential for such a surge exists, especially if conditions in the Atlantic change in the coming weeks. As sea surface temperatures remain warm in the Caribbean, the second half of the hurricane season could see a significant increase in storm activity.
Conclusion: The calm before the storm?
While the hiatus in hurricanes may seem like a reprieve, it's too early to call the season a bust. Conditions for new storms still exist, and history has shown that hurricane activity can quickly intensify in the final months of the season. As we approach the traditional peak of hurricane season, staying prepared and informed remains critical.
Personal Opinion: The unpredictability of this hurricane season underscores the complexity of a changing climate. While a pause in the storm may offer a temporary sense of relief, it is vital to remain alert and prepared. As history shows, even calm seasons can end in a devastating blow, and as global warming affects weather patterns, the stakes are higher than ever.
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