The Mediterranean region, including Italy, faces significant challenges due to sea level rise and related geological changes. This problem is further complicated by vertical land movements that increase the vulnerability of coastal areas to disasters such as tsunamis.
Sea level rise in the Mediterranean
Studies show that the Mediterranean has experienced an average sea level rise of around 1.1–2.5 mm per year since the late 19th century. However, recent measurements suggest an acceleration to around 3 mm per year due to climate change and melting ice sheets. Projections vary considerably by 2100 depending on greenhouse gas emission scenarios, with potential increases ranging from 32 cm to 180 cm.
Vertical land movements
In Italy, subsidence—the lowering of the land due to natural and anthropogenic factors—is a major factor in relative sea level change. For example, Venice has seen subsidence of up to 10 mm per year in some areas, increasing the risk of flooding. This combination of rising sea levels and subsidence of land increases the likelihood of tsunamis caused by underwater earthquakes or landslides.
Tsunami risk assessment
Experts stress the need for comprehensive risk models that take into account both sea level rise and vertical land movement. These models can improve tsunami forecasts, especially for coastal cities such as Naples and Catania, which are located near tectonically active zones. The projections indicate an increased risk of tsunamis over the next 50 years, highlighting the importance of regional monitoring and preparedness.
Cost and mitigation efforts
Addressing these risks is costly. For example, Italy has invested billions in barriers such as the MOSE project in Venice, designed to protect the city from storm surges. But experts say such measures need to be combined with sustainable urban planning and global efforts to limit emissions. Current mitigation costs range from $5 billion to $20 billion, depending on the size and scale of the protective infrastructure.
Experts agree that a joint international effort is essential to address the twin threats of rising sea levels and tsunami risks. Dr. Angelo Rubino of the University of Venice suggests that combining modern satellite data with regional climate models could improve the accuracy of forecasts. Meanwhile, geophysicist Giorgio Spada stresses the importance of incorporating geological factors, such as tectonic movements, into long-term planning.
Sea level rise and vertical land movements are a serious challenge for Italy and the Mediterranean region. While technological and infrastructure projects offer some protection, comprehensive strategies are essential to reduce long-term risks. Public awareness, proactive policies and international cooperation will play a crucial role in protecting these coastal areas.
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