China’s ambitious plan to build a mega hydropower plant on the Yarlung Tsangpo River (known as the Brahmaputra in India) has sparked heated debate across Asia. While Beijing presents it as a step towards renewable energy and climate resilience, New Delhi sees it as a threat to water security and economic stability.
Affected provinces and states
China: Tibet Autonomous Region (where the Yarlung Tsangpo originates).
India: Arunachal Pradesh and Assam, where the Brahmaputra provides water to millions of people.
Bangladesh: Downstream regions, including Dhaka and coastal provinces, depend on the river’s flow.
Key threats identified
1. Water security: Reduced flow in Indian states could cause drought in agricultural areas.
2. Flood risks: Sudden releases of water from the dam could worsen monsoon-induced floods in Assam and Bangladesh.
3. Environmental damage: Fish migration and biodiversity in one of the world’s richest river systems could collapse.
4. Geopolitical tensions: The dam project adds strain to already fragile Sino-Indian relations.
Climate economics and costs
China says the project will generate up to 60 gigawatts of clean energy, potentially surpassing the Three Gorges Dam. Estimated cost: $25 billion to $30 billion. Proponents say it could cut carbon emissions and fuel Beijing’s green energy ambitions.
But for India, the climate economy risks are huge: disruption to irrigation, food insecurity and billions in losses to agriculture and fisheries. The economic stakes for Assam, Arunachal Pradesh and Bangladesh’s delta regions are huge.
A fragile future
While China promotes its megadam as a climate solution, experts warn it could trigger a regional water crisis. Without international agreements, rivers that cross borders remain at the heart of climate geopolitics, where sustainability and sovereignty collide.
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