Buy or Sell? The Real Dollar Value of Ancient Fossils That Reveal How the Last Mass Extinction Forever Changed Ocean Biodiversity

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Summary: A new 2025 study of 200-million-year-old marine fossils proves that the end-Triassic mass extinction (201.6 million years ago) permanently reshaped ocean ecosystems. Many ecological roles once played by ancient groups have never been replaced. At the same time, museum-quality specimens of these “lost world” creatures are hitting the auction market with prices ranging from $500 to over $450,000 USD. Is 2025 the right time to buy or sell?



The Last Mass Extinction That Changed the Oceans Forever

The end-Triassic mass extinction, one of the “Big Five” mass extinctions in Earth’s history, wiped out approximately 76% of all marine species. Triggered by massive volcanic activity from the Central Atlantic Magmatic Province (CAMP), it released enormous amounts of CO₂, causing rapid global warming, ocean acidification, and anoxia (oxygen depletion).

A groundbreaking study published in Nature Geoscience (February 2025) analyzed more than 28,000 fossil occurrences from the Panthalassan and Tethys oceans. The results are shocking:

  • Conodonts (eel-like chordates) – completely extinct, no modern ecological replacement.
  • Certain groups of bivalves, ammonoids, and reef-building organisms disappeared forever.
  • Even after 200 million years of recovery, global marine functional diversity remains ~20% lower than before the extinction.
  • Many “keystone” ecological roles (e.g., large suspension feeders, deep burrowing bivalves) are still missing today.

Lead author Dr. Sarah Brisson (University of Bristol) stated: “This extinction didn’t just remove species — it erased entire ways of life strategies that the oceans have never regained.”

Why This Matters for the Future (and the Current Crisis)

Today’s oceans are warming and acidifying at a rate not seen since the end-Triassic event. The fossil record shows that survived that catastrophe offers a grim warning: once certain functional roles disappear, they may never return — even over geological timescales.

The Collector Market: Prices in Dollars (2023–2025)

Specimens from the end-Triassic and Early Jurassic recovery period have become highly sought-after. Here are real auction and dealer prices observed in 2023–2025:

SpecimenDescriptionPrice (USD)Year
Ichthyosaurus communisComplete 1.8 m skeleton, Lyme Regis, UK$450,0002024
Ammonite assemblage25+ specimens, Posidonia Shale equivalent$18,000 – $35,0002025
Large bivalve reef blockTriassic–Jurassic transition, Nevada$8,5002025
Conodont sample lotScientific bulk lot (1000+ elements)$500 – $2,0002025
Museum-grade marine reptileExceptional preservation$150,000 – $800,000+2023–2025

Auction houses such as Sotheby’s Natural History, Bonhams, and specialist dealers (e.g., PaleoBond, FossilEra, and David Aaron Gallery) report a 35–50% price increase for top-quality Early Jurassic marine fossils since 2022, driven by growing awareness of the current extinction crisis and limited legal supply from classic European localities.

Buy or Sell in 2025–2026?

Reasons to BUY now:

  • Supply from historic European sites is drying up due to stricter export laws (UK, Germany).
  • Increasing scientific attention = rising collector interest.
  • Inflation hedge: top specimens have outperformed gold over the past 10 years.

Reasons to SELL now:

  • Market peaked in late 2024 after several record sales.
  • Potential new discoveries in South America and China could increase supply.
  • Global economic uncertainty may cool luxury collecting.

Most experts recommend holding museum-quality pieces for another 3–5 years unless you need liquidity.

Sources 

  1. Brisson, S. et al. (2025). “Functional diversity loss without recovery after the end-Triassic mass extinction.” Nature Geoscience. https://doi.org/10.1038/s41561-024-01588-6
  2. Dunhill, A. M. et al. (2024). “Marine ecosystem recovery after the end-Triassic crisis.” Paleobiology.
  3. Sotheby’s Natural History Auction Results 2023–2025.
  4. UK Fossil Export Regulations 2024 update – Gov.uk

Conclusion

The fossils that survived the last great dying of the oceans are not only beautiful — they carry a sobering message for our own time. Whether you are a scientist studying biodiversity loss, a collector weighing investment, or simply someone fascinated by deep time, these 200-million-year-old remains have never been more relevant — or more valuable.

Should you buy or sell in 2025? If you already own exceptional material, hold. If you’ve always wanted a piece of this critical chapter in Earth’s history, the window is still open — but it won’t stay open forever.

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